HVS India – Indian Hotel Sector – Riding the Next Growth Cycle

Regardless of a number of headwinds comparable to inflationary force, the potential of a recession in the United States and Europe, and a manpower scarcity, the Indian lodge business’s efficiency outlook stays sure. Learn on to understand extra.


After months of low occupancy and falling reasonable charges because of the pandemic, the Indian lodge business is in spite of everything witnessing renewed enlargement. The upcycle is obviously underway and is predicted to remaining for the following 4-5 years, as call for is spiraling whilst provide enlargement is fairly low, which is a vital distinction from the former upcycles within the business. This augurs smartly for the business as a result of, as proven within the graph under, lodge efficiency in India is extremely delicate to provide and insist dynamics.

The business’s golden age used to be from the calendar yr 2000 to 2005. Following the 9/11 assaults in 2001, the business started to revel in remarkable will increase in each occupancy and reasonable charges, in contrast to any that had ever took place sooner than. Home shuttle within the nation started to extend as outbound shuttle used to be disrupted by way of the SARS epidemic in 2002 and the start of the US-Iraq warfare in 2003. Because of this, call for higher at a CAGR of greater than 11% throughout this era, whilst provide higher at a slower tempo of 6.3%, which helped pressure up occupancy by way of just about 15 share issues and RevPAR by way of nearly 13%.

Indian Resort Business: Provide, Call for, and RevPAR Pattern

Indian Hotel Industry: Supply, Demand, and RevPAR Trend

Supply: HVS Analysis

The 2005-2010 length used to be a blended bag for the business. The robust financial enlargement in India started to gas lodge call for, which higher by way of double digits throughout the primary 3 years of this era, serving to reasonable charges to top in 2007. The robust call for enlargement and business efficiency triggered hoteliers around the nation to arrange new houses. Alternatively, the Nice Monetary Disaster in 2008 set the level for the field’s decline, which, blended with the fear assaults in Mumbai that yr, ended in slower enlargement in call for till 2009. This, blended with the overhang of provide enlargement, which used to be in large part concentrated within the nation’s key lodge markets, started to place force on lodge occupancy and reasonable charges. Because of this, whilst call for higher by way of greater than 9% from 2005 to 2010, provide enlargement used to be considerably upper at 13%, which led to RevPAR to say no by way of nearly 5% throughout this time. This development persevered during the 2010–2015-time body.

The efficiency of the business reached a turning level in 2015 when call for reached a top of just about 10% and the provision enlargement price started to decelerate after years of speedy enlargement, leading to a 6% build up in RevPAR. Starting 2015, the business witnessed steady enlargement in RevPAR with a CAGR of seven.4%, then again, the COVID-19 pandemic unexpectedly ended this upcycle in March 2020. Since then, the business has come a ways, with call for and function constantly making improvements to during the last yr, implying that the following enlargement cycle is underway. Regardless of a myriad of headwinds comparable to inflationary force, the potential of a recession in the United States and Europe, and a manpower scarcity at play, the business’s efficiency outlook stays sure as a result of, in contrast to earlier cycles, provide enlargement will probably be not up to call for enlargement.

In step with the newest business information, whilst room call for higher by way of greater than 60% yr on yr between January and July 2022, room provide higher by way of most effective 1-2%. Whilst call for will keep growing by way of double digits because of the robust home shuttle section and a rebound in inbound tourism, we await provide to develop at a CAGR of most effective 3-4% over the following six to seven years. Moreover, due to the expansion of home recreational shuttle, the impending provide will probably be unfold out throughout a number of places moderately than concentrated in a choose few key markets, combating a efficiency slowdown. Those components, blended with India’s robust financial outlook, will pressure persisted robust efficiency enlargement within the Indian lodge business.

Mandeep S. Lamba, President – South Asia, oversees the HVS follow in South Asia. Mandeep has spent over 30 years within the hospitality business having labored with Global Resort Firms comparable to Selection Accommodations, IHG and Radisson Accommodations sooner than turning into President for ITC Fortune Accommodations in 2001. Having effectively constructed the Fortune emblem in India’s mid-scale hospitality sector, Mandeep ventured into an entrepreneurial stint for over 8 years, putting in place JV firms with Dawnay Day Crew UK and Onyx Hospitality Thailand sooner than becoming a member of JLL in 2014, as Managing Director, Accommodations & Hospitality Crew – South Asia. A longtime business chief, Mandeep has received a number of awards and recognitions for his accomplishments. Lately, he used to be featured within the Hotelier India Energy Record of probably the most revered hoteliers in India for the second one yr in a row. Touch Mandeep at +91 981 1306 161 or mlamba@hvs.com.

Dipti Mohan, Senior Supervisor – Analysis with HVS South Asia, is a seasoned wisdom skilled with in depth revel in in research-based content material advent. She has authored a number of ‘viewpoint’ paperwork comparable to concept management stories, professional opinion articles, white papers and examine stories. Touch Dipti at dmohan@hvs.com.

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