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The United Kingdom will evade the European heatwave due to the continuation of mild and wet weather

While southern Europe endures another day of 40-degree heat, the weather in the majority of Britain remains unpredictable and grey.

The jet stream, a broad current of rapid winds that circles the globe five to seven miles above our heads, is in a southerly position that is keeping a high-pressure system over the continent but preventing it from reaching the United Kingdom and leaving us with a low-pressure system.

According to the Met Office, this condition is expected to persist for several weeks, with pressure only beginning to increase next month. It is anticipated that the changeable, moderate weather will continue at least through August, with the possibility of above-average precipitation at the beginning of the month before a possible return to the seasonal norm.

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Christoph Almond, a meteorological expert at the Met Office, told me: “There are indications that the persistent areas of low pressure we’ve been experiencing could become less dominant, and pressure could begin to build near the UK in August, leading to a decrease in precipitation and a recovery in temperatures to average or slightly above average levels.”

Due to the vast disparity in climate on either side of the jet stream, despite June’s record-breaking temperatures, the remainder of the British summer is unlikely to match the extreme heat across the Channel.

Mr. Almond added, “At this time, there are no indications of anything unusual or prolonged like that which is currently being experienced in mainland Europe; rather, we are experiencing a return to typical British summer conditions.”

However, this should result in marginally better weather in the second half of August, with average highs of just over 20 degrees over the past four decades.

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The effects of climate change are increasing the variability and unpredictability of the British climate. By adding more energy to the global climate system, its long-term stability is deteriorating and the likelihood of extreme events is increasing.

The Met Office estimates that June’s record-breaking heat was twice as likely to occur as it was in 1940, one of the previous joint-hottest Junes. Meanwhile, last summer’s temperatures of 40 degrees Fahrenheit would have likely been unthinkable without the influence of human-caused climate change.

Since the 1950s, European heatwaves have grown in duration and intensity, according to studies.

As the Earth has already warmed by 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit above its pre-industrial average, the current effects are likely to intensify. Concerns exist that various global systems, such as the Gulf Stream, which transports mild water from the Caribbean to the North Atlantic and moderates Britain’s winters, may fail.

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As the temperature difference between the Arctic and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere decreases, scientists believe that the jet stream could become weaker and more prone to deviations. This could expose formerly temperate northern regions to Arctic winds in the winter and extreme temperatures in the summer.

The increased variability in Britain’s weather as a result of climate change does not guarantee that there will always be extreme weather, but it makes it more likely and more severe when it does occur.

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